Results

Each release scores a set of forecasts against what the Court did. A release is fixed at its tag in the public repository: its page shows the summary committed there, and later releases add to it rather than revise it. Scores are not combined across releases.

Release 1 · October 9, 2026 · tag results/ot2026-longconf
Three AI models forecast which petitions the Supreme Court would take up at its 2026-09-28 conference; on the 97 scored petitions it has decided (91 of them pre-registered), the Court granted 3, two of them sent back for reconsideration, too few to measure a difference between the models.
The Supreme Court’s first conference of the October 2026 Term: which petitions it would take up

Results

Three AI models forecast which petitions the Supreme Court would take up at its 2026-09-28 conference; on the 97 scored petitions it has decided (91 of them pre-registered), the Court granted 3, two of them sent back for reconsideration, too few to measure a difference between the models.